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Will the semiconductor industry fully recover in the second half of 2024?

The semiconductor industry is expected to fully recover in the second half of 024, but the pace of recovery may be uneven.

The semiconductor industry is expected to usher in a full recovery in 2024, which is mainly due to the recovery expectations of the global economy, the reduction in electronic product inventories and the expansion of overall demand for electronic equipment, especially the explosive demand for computing power in artificial intelligence-related products. growth.

The performance of many semiconductor companies has increased significantly, reflecting the positive impact of industry recovery on corporate profits.

Samsung's Electronic Device Solutions (DS) division has set a 2024 operating profit target of 15 trillion won (approximately US$8.8 billion), accounting for about one-third of the company's full-year total operating profit forecast. This target is based on expectations for industry recovery and aims to reverse the DS division's 13 trillion won loss in 2023. If the target is achieved, the division will contribute approximately 25 trillion won to the company's profit growth.

In addition, the power semiconductor industry has experienced price wars before, and profit margins have been severely compressed. After inventories are removed, manufacturers have made price increases an inevitable choice in order to balance costs and income. Supported by the improvement of market supply and demand relations, the MCU market shows structural recovery characteristics.

Some manufacturers have begun to raise prices. It is expected that power, analog and other fields are expected to see a wave of price increases in the second half of the year, and the domestic semiconductor industry may usher in a favorable situation of comprehensive recovery. Advanced process field: Sino-US AI investment resonates, and domestic AI investment has continued to increase since 2026. Advanced process and storage products continue to be in short supply, and the prosperity remains high.

Why will hard drives increase in prices in 2025

In 025, the prices of these metals may rise significantly due to tight supply of global mineral resources, increased difficulty in mining or geopolitical factors. As an important component of hard disk magnetic recording materials, the rising price of cobalt directly increases the production cost of hard disks and drives up prices. Wafer prices fluctuate: One of the core components of a hard disk is the wafer where the memory chips are located.

The collective price increase of mechanical hard drives from 025 to the first quarter of 2026 is the result of the combined effect of multiple factors such as production capacity adjustment, rising raw material costs, surge in demand, international market fluctuations, changes in industry competition landscape, policy and environmental protection requirements, and transfer of flash memory production capacity.

The core reasons for the increase in mechanical hard disk prices in 025 include imbalance between supply and demand, surge in demand in the AI industry, adjustment of original factory production capacity, strong enterprise-level demand, cost constraints on alternative solutions and the impact of second-hand market circulation. The specific analysis is as follows: Imbalanced supply and demand: Short-term market supply cuts In September 2025, the mechanical hard disk market experienced an extreme situation where supply exceeds demand, and the prices of some products increased by more than 30%. Agent orders were cancelled, and the market buying atmosphere intensified.

The increase in hard disk prices in November 025 was mainly caused by the combination of multiple factors such as rising prices of raw materials, surge in demand, technology upgrades, and rising logistics costs. The current price remains high. Raw materials and supply chain pressure The price of core materials: The prices of key raw materials for hard drives such as rare earths and magnetic alloys will increase by 27% year-on-year in 2025. Mineral exports in South America and Southeast Asia will decrease. Environmental protection policies will compress production capacity in the smelting sector, pushing up the manufacturing cost of magnetic heads and discs.

PC sales are extremely bleak: the fastest recovery will have to wait until next year

1. Therefore, the fastest recovery of the PC industry will wait until next year, which means that the PC market will remain in a downturn for the next period of time. Manufacturers need to be prepared to cope with long-term difficulties, and consumers may also need to wait more. It will take a long time to see the market recovery and improvements in product prices, performance, etc.

2. The PC computer industry is currently facing an unprecedented crisis. There is a serious inventory backlog and shipments have dropped sharply. The industry's recovery is expected to be the second half of next year at the earliest. The specific manifestations are as follows: The inventory backlog is serious: The backlog of a major TOP5 PC factory reaches 45.8 billion yuan, exceeding 180 days, and is close to getting out of control. This shows that brand owners are facing tremendous pressure in the process of adjusting inventory, and the problem of inventory backlog is very prominent.

3. Industrial PCs cannot compete with low-cost micro PLCs, which is also the fastest growing part of the PLC market. Judging from the development trend, the future of the control system is very... In terms of PLC application, my country is very active and the application industries are also very wide.

4."Diablo IV" is selling well, and Blizzard said the game is still the fastest-selling game in its history, both per unit sales and sales.

5. This time point is clearer than the market expected. Participants generally agreed that if the economic recovery remains basically on a normal track, it may be appropriate to end the gradual contraction process around the middle of next year. In terms of specific debt reduction paths, officials expect to reduce purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds by $10 billion and purchases of mortgage-backed securities by $5 billion per month. Inflationary pressures and expectations Federal Reserve officials have raised their inflation expectations but still believe high inflation is temporary.

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